Vaata laupäev, 25 august 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Aug 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 238 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Aug 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1554 (N15W00) produced
one C1/Sf flare at 0236Z. No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are
expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1555 (N09E69) was numbered
overnight and has developed into a Dao type spot group with a beta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with two
periods of active to major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar
wind velocity increased to around 600 km/s with the arrival of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active to major storm levels at high latitudes on 26 August due to
residual coronal hole high speed stream effects. Activity is
expected to decline to mostly quiet levels with a slight chance for
active to minor storm levels at high latitudes on 27 August. On day
3 (28 August) conditions are expected to return to quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for minor to major storm levels due
to the arrival of another negative polarity coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Augkuni 28 Aug
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Aug 106 Prognoositud 26 Aug-28 Aug 110/110/110 90 päeva keskmine 25 Aug 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Aug 009/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 007/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Aug kuni 28 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 05% | 25% |
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