Vaata kolmapäev, 8 august 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Aug 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 221 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Aug 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1542 (S14E50) remained
the most active region on the solar disk, producing seven C-class
flares. The largest of these flares was a C4/Sf flare that occurred
at 08/1132Z. A large portion of a filament erupted from the
southwest quadrant beginning around 08/0200Z. A slow coronal mass
ejection (CME) (estimated plane-of-sky speed 346 km/s) was first
observed off the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0612Z and
was likely associated with the filament eruption. The bulk of the
CME material did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active period
from 08/0000-0300Z. Indications of a solar sector boundary crossing
were evident on the ACE spacecraft as sustained southward IMF Bz and
enhanced IMF Bt occurred prior to the active period. ACE EPAM data
indicated the beginning of a slow rise in energetic particles at
approximately 08/1200Z. This rise is likely associated with the
anticipated glancing blow from the 04 Aug CME.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active to minor storm periods early on day one (09 Aug). Activity
should return to quiet to unsettled late in the day as effects of
the CME wane. Days two and three (10 and 11 Aug) are expected to be
at predominately quiet levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Augkuni 11 Aug
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Aug 133 Prognoositud 09 Aug-11 Aug 130/130/125 90 päeva keskmine 08 Aug 128
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Aug 009/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 011/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Aug kuni 11 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
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