Vaata reede, 27 juuli 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 27 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 209 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Jul 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity
between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f
x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a
Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was
reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial
speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was
measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient
will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533
(S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some
preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered)
rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region
1532.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of
coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The
field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with
possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should
recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30
July) as CH effects wane.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Julkuni 30 Jul
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 Jul 123 Prognoositud 28 Jul-30 Jul 125/130/135 90 päeva keskmine 27 Jul 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Jul 003/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Jul kuni 30 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 45% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 65% | 30% |
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