Vaata reede, 20 juuli 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 20 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 202 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Jul 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. Region 1523 (S28W74) and Region 1525 (S20E09) are the largest
regions on the disk but both regions remained stable and quiet. New
Region 1526 (S17E63) was numbered earlier today and is currently a
simple beta group. A disappearing filament was observed in the
northwest quadrant of the Sun, however no CMEs were observed in
conjunction with the event.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for the next three
days (21-23 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (21 July). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (22 July), as a coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is
expected on day three (23 July) as effects of the CH HSS continue.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Julkuni 23 Jul
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 40% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 20 Jul 092 Prognoositud 21 Jul-23 Jul 090/090/095 90 päeva keskmine 20 Jul 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 20 Jul 009/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 006/005-008/010-011/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Jul kuni 23 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 35% | 35% |
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