Vaata kolmapäev, 18 juuli 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jul 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 200 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Jul 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Region 1520 (S17W89), set to
rotate off the west limb today, produced all of todays flare
activity, consisting of two C3 class events. Region 1523 (S28W51)
showed slight decay, while the remaining Regions 1524 (S16E37) and
newly numbered 1525 (S22E36) were quiet and stable. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar Activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next 24 hours
until 1520 rotates further around west limb. Days two and three are
expected to be low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at generally quiet levels for the
entire period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
17/1715Z continued throughout the period. The peak value observed
was 136 PFU at 18/0600Z after which the flux levels were generally
decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to end on 19 July.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Julkuni 21 Jul
| Klass M | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Klass X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Prooton | 80% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Jul 110 Prognoositud 19 Jul-21 Jul 100/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 18 Jul 129
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Jul 009/018 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 007/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Jul kuni 21 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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