Vaata teisipäev, 5 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 05 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 157 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1499 (N15E17) produced the largest x-ray event of the period with a
C4/2f at 05/2059Z. New Region 1503 (N11W38) was numbered today and
is considered a Bxo-beta type spot group. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (06-08 June).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to continued effects from a favorably positioned coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased from
approximately 650 km/s to 750 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bt remained stable at about 8 nT. The Bz component of
the IMF varied between +6 and -7 nT but held steady at approximately
-5 nT for the last 2 hours of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with active periods likely on day one (06
June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected
on days two and three (07-08 June) as the CH HSS effects subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Junkuni 08 Jun
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Jun 139 Prognoositud 06 Jun-08 Jun 140/140/140 90 päeva keskmine 05 Jun 117
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Jun 014/018 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Jun 014/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 014/018-011/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Jun kuni 08 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 55% | 40% | 30% |
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