Vaata laupäev, 2 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 154 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C3 flare was observed from
the west limb at 01/2241Z. It was accompanied by a Type II radio
emission (936 km/s) and a non-earth-directed CME. Region 1498
(N08E55) produced a C2 flare at 02/0105Z and 1493 (N15E35) produced
C1 flare at 02/0431Z. New flux emerged near S12W40 and N17E65. All
eight regions on the disk exhibited simple beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was primarily quiet for the first half of the
day, increasing to unsettled levels during the 15-18Z synoptic
period. At the ACE spacecraft, low energy particles detected by the
EPAM instrument began rising about 02/06Z, finally leveling off
around 02/14Z. Bz began turning southward around 02/1410Z,
decreasing to around -7 nT where it remained. The solar sector
switched from negative to positive at the same time. Solar wind
speed ranged between 340 and 360 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for an
isolated active period on day one (3 June). Activity is expected to
increase to unsettled levels on day two (4 June) and active levels
on day three (5 June), with a chance for minor storm periods both
days. The disturbance is expected as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Junkuni 05 Jun
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Jun 129 Prognoositud 03 Jun-05 Jun 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 02 Jun 117
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 009/010-013/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Jun kuni 05 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 50% | 50% |
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