Vaata kolmapäev, 23 mai 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 May 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 144 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 May 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1484 (N11W56) produced
a C1/Sf flare at 23/0027Z. Region 1484 decayed slightly in its
leader and intermediate spots. Slight growth was observed in Region
1483 (S24W79) as it approached the west limb. New Region 1489
(S30E40) was numbered today. The rest of the spotted regions showed
no significant changes. No earth directed CMEs were observed during
the reporting period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the
forecast period (24 - 26 May).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storming. Early on
23 May, solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from
approximately 430 km/s to 630 km/s while the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) fluctuated between +/- 10 nT. The geomagnetic field
responded with active to minor storm periods between 23/0000 -
0900Z. By about 23/0600Z, total field strength decreased to
approximately 4 - 5 nT while the Bz component remained mostly
positive. Solar wind speed remained fairly steady around 580 km/s
to 600 km/s through the end of the reporting period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for further active
periods on day 1 (24 May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
day 2 (25 May). On day 3 (26 May), quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected with a chance for isolated active periods around
mid-day as a glancing blow from the 22 May CME is possible.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Maykuni 26 May
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 May 117 Prognoositud 24 May-26 May 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 23 May 116
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 May 015/018 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 May 012/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 010/010-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 May kuni 26 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 05% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 01% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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