Vaata kolmapäev, 25 aprill 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Apr 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 116 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Apr 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1459 (S16W65)
produced a C1 x-ray event at 25/0224Z while Region 1460 (N15W81)
produced a C3/Sf at 25/1215Z. Region 1465 (S17W26) indicated
consolidation in both its leader and trailer spots. The region
appeared to have lost its gamma and delta magnetic configuration,
but still maintained an east to west oriented inversion line. No
discernible changes were noted in the remaining regions. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (26 - 28 April).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with an isolated high latitude severe storm period observed during
25/0600Z - 0900Z. This activity was due to coronal hole high speed
stream affects (CH HSS). Over the past 24 hours, solar wind
velocities gradually increased from about 600 km/s to near 800 km/s.
Total field strength (Bt) varied between 5 to 12 nT while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly south
from -4 to -10 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods on day one (26 April) as the 23 April CME is expected to
become geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods are expected on day two (27 April) as effects of the CME
wane. By day three (28 April), mostly quiet conditions are expected.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Aprkuni 28 Apr
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Apr 127 Prognoositud 26 Apr-28 Apr 125/120/120 90 päeva keskmine 25 Apr 112
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Apr 030/043 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Apr 018/022 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 017/025-011/015-004/006
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Apr kuni 28 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 15% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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