Vaata teisipäev, 17 aprill 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Apr 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 108 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Apr 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. A
long duration C1 flare was observed from new Region 1461 (N13E66) at
17/0809Z. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
17/0800Z but does not appear to be Earth-directed. A filament
eruption occurred at approximately 17/1330Z near N24W40. The
associated CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 17/1424Z but
is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1460 (N16E26) was
also numbered overnight and is considered a Dso-beta type spot
group. Region 1459 (S15E40) has shown a significant decrease in
areal coverage and is now a Dao-beta type spot group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(18-20 April).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (18-19 April). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for isolated
active periods on day three (20 April) due to a recurrent Solar
Sector Boundary Crossing (SSBC).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Aprkuni 20 Apr
| Klass M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 Apr 114 Prognoositud 18 Apr-20 Apr 115/115/110 90 päeva keskmine 17 Apr 112
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 17 Apr 006/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Apr kuni 20 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
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