Vaata esmaspäev, 5 märts 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 065 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Mar 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z Solar activity has been high. An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41). This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec. Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period. New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays
X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Markuni 08 Mar
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Prooton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 05 Mar 132 Prognoositud 06 Mar-08 Mar 135/140/140 90 päeva keskmine 05 Mar 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Mar 010/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-013/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Mar kuni 08 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 40% | 10% |
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