Vaata pühapäev, 26 veebruar 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Feb 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 057 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 Feb 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1421 (N14W48) produced
a C1 flare at 26/1125Z. New flux emergence appeared to the west of
Regions 1423 (N17E29) and 1424 (N07E39) and were numbered Regions
1425 (N18E12) and 1426 (N10E12) respectively. Two CMEs were
observed during the reporting period; the first, observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 26/0200Z off the NE limb and the second at
26/0636Z off the NW limb. Neither are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (27 -
29 February).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period
observed at high latitudes at 26/0900 - 1200Z. The >10 MeV proton
enhancement that began early on 25 February continued with a maximum
value of 4.6 pfu at 26/0055Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on day 1 (27 February) as the 24 February CME is expected
to be geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions are expected on day 2 (28 February). Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 3 (29 February). There is a slight
chance for a >10 MeV proton event due to shock enhancement of the
proton levels on days 1 - 2 (27 - 28 February).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Febkuni 29 Feb
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 Feb 107 Prognoositud 27 Feb-29 Feb 100/100/100 90 päeva keskmine 26 Feb 129
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 011/015-010/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 Feb kuni 29 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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