Vaata laupäev, 28 jaanuar 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jan 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 028 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 Jan 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 1410 (N18E48)
produced a C1 flare at 28/1534Z. New Region 1411 (S26E09) was
numbered today and is classified as an Axx-alpha type group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (29-31 January).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The
greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z and reached
a max of 12 pfu at 27/2140Z, was still in progress at the time of
this writing. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
27/1905Z and reached a peak of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z, was also still
in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 January) as effects from
the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods are expected on day two (30 January)
due to effects from the CME associated with the X1 flare observed on
27 January. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three
(31 January) due to residual CME effects. The greater than 100 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 29/0000Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue through day one (29 January)
and then gradually decrease below threshold by the end of day two
(30 January).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 Jankuni 31 Jan
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 99% | 70% | 20% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 Jan 115 Prognoositud 29 Jan-31 Jan 115/110/110 90 päeva keskmine 28 Jan 143
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 27 Jan 006/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 Jan kuni 31 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 40% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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