Vaata laupäev, 21 jaanuar 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jan 21 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 021 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 Jan 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Isolated low-level C-class
flares were observed. Plage Region 1396 (N25W86) produced a C1 x-ray
flare at 20/2112Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated
shock velocity 945 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME). Region 1402 (N29W11) produced a long-duration C1 at
20/2333Z associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1402
showed gradual trailer spot decay during the period and was
classified as a Cko group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region
1401 (N17W14) also showed gradual trailer spot decay and was
classified as an Ehi group with a beta magnetic classification. New
Regions 1408 (N08E69) and 1409 (N16E50) were numbered. Both were
small and simply-structured.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (22 - 24 January) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with brief active to
minor storm levels at high latitudes. A weak interplanetary shock
was observed at the ACE spacecraft at around 21/0400Z. This was
followed by a weak geomagnetic sudden impulse at 21/0502Z (7 nT,
Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (22
January). Activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to active
levels at around 22/1800Z and continue into day 2 (23 January) due
to the expected arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January.
There will also be a chance for minor storm levels during the CME
passage. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 3 (24 January) as CME effects subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Jankuni 24 Jan
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 Jan 142 Prognoositud 22 Jan-24 Jan 145/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 21 Jan 143
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 009/010-020/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 Jan kuni 24 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 40% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 20% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 50% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
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