Vaata teisipäev, 13 detsember 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Dec 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 347 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Dec 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were three, low-level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours, all from Region 1367
(S18W89). Region 1367 showed signs of new flux emerging as it was
rotating around the west limb. Region 1374 (S18E01) continues to be
the largest group on the disk (140 millionths) and shows a very
small delta configuration in the leader spot region, but was quiet
and stable. Two erupting prominences which led to coronal mass
ejections were observed: the first just entered the LASCO/C2 field
of view at 12/1848Z, slightly west of the north pole and the second
entered LASCO/C2 field of view at 13/0200Z off the southwest limb.
Neither of these CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. There was an interval of
unsettled levels from 0900-1500Z at high latitudes.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (14 December). Quiet levels with a
chance for some unsettled periods are expected for day two (15
December) due to a possible brief, glancing blow from an erupting
prominence/CME that was observed on 11 December. Quiet levels are
expected to prevail for the third day (16 December).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Deckuni 16 Dec
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Dec 133 Prognoositud 14 Dec-16 Dec 133/132/130 90 päeva keskmine 13 Dec 146
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Dec 004/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Dec kuni 16 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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