Vaata kolmapäev, 23 november 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Nov 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 327 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Nov 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C2
at 23/1328Z from Region 1346 (S15W82). Region 1356 (N15E28) decayed
slightly in area in its intermediate spots. Three CMEs were
observed during the summary period. The first was associated with a
filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant first observed in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 22/1957Z. The second was first seen in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048Z which was possibly associated with
the same filament eruption. The third was first seen in SOHO/LASCO
C2 imagery at 23/0924Z which was associated with a high latitude
backside event. Further analysis of the 22/1957Z CME is ongoing to
determine the possibility of a glancing blow. The two subsequent
CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity. An isolated M-class flare is
possible from Region 1356.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (24 - 26
November).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Novkuni 26 Nov
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Nov 140 Prognoositud 24 Nov-26 Nov 145/145/145 90 päeva keskmine 23 Nov 139
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Nov 007/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Nov 005/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Nov kuni 26 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 04% | 04% | 04% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Väike torm | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 06% | 06% | 06% |
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