Vaata teisipäev, 25 oktoober 2011 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 298 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Oct 2011

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray event from Region 1330 (N08E31). Regions 1325 (N15E03), 1327 (S21W54) and 1330) indicated some decay in area. The remaining regions were unchanged.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days (26 - 28 October). Regions 1324 (N12W26) and 1330 (N08E29) are the most likely to produce moderate level activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. The period began with unsettled to minor storm levels. By 25/0000Z, minor to major storm levels, with high latitude severe storm levels, were observed. From 25/0300Z - 0900Z, active to major storm levels predominated followed by quiet to active levels for the remainder of the period. This increase in activity was likely associated with effects following the arrival of CME activity, first observed on 22 October. Following the interplanetary shock observed at the ACE spacecraft on 24/1748Z. ACE registered increases in wind speed, temperature and density. Solar wind velocities increased from a steady 350 km/s to about 525 km/s, and remained at that speed throughout the period. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt increased to above 20 nT from about 24/2000Z through 25/1300Z and gradually decreased to about 8 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component of the IMF reached southward values of -20 nT from about 24/2000Z through 25/0000Z. The remainder of the period observed mostly northward Bz.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods on day one (26 October), due to lingering effects from the CME that impacted Earth on 24 October. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day two (27 October). By day three (28 October), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Octkuni 28 Oct
Klass M20%20%20%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       25 Oct 139
  Prognoositud   26 Oct-28 Oct  140/140/135
  90 päeva keskmine        25 Oct 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Oct  016/023
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  028/040
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  007/012-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Oct kuni 28 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%05%15%
Väike torm05%01%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%10%20%
Väike torm15%05%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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