Vaata esmaspäev, 24 oktoober 2011 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Oct 24 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 297 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Oct 2011

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1330 (N08E45) produced a C1 x-ray event at 23/2237Z. The region continued to evolve as it rotated more fully on the disk. It grew in both area coverage and spot count and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The other significant region of interest, Region 1324 (N12W13), was quiet and stable during the period. New Region 1332 (N32E78) rotated onto the disk as an H-type spot.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity. Regions 1324 (N12W13) and 1330 (N08E45) are the most likely for moderate level activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet with a single active period observed between 24/1800 - 2100Z. The ACE spacecraft observed an interplanetary shock passage at 24/1748Z with a subsequent sudden impulse of 13 nT observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 24/1832Z. Observations at ACE revealed increases in temperature, density and wind speed while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) decreased southward to -20 nT for a brief period. IMF Bt reached 20 nT. Wind velocities increased from a steady 350 km/s to 525 km/s and remained so through the end of the period. This mostly likely was the arrival of a CME that occurred at 22/0058Z in association with an eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 23/1500Z ended at 23/1605Z. A peak flux of 13 pfu was reached at 23/1535Z. Earlier in the period, another, weaker shock passage was observed in the ACE solar wind data at 23/2320Z. This was most likely the result of a glancing blow from a CME associated with an M1.6 x-ray event observed of the NW limb at 20/0325Z .
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods on day one (25 October), due to lingering effects of the 24 October CME passage. By day two (26 October), the field is expected to mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods returning to mostly quiet on day three (27 October).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Octkuni 27 Oct
Klass M20%20%20%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       24 Oct 145
  Prognoositud   25 Oct-27 Oct  145/140/140
  90 päeva keskmine        24 Oct 123
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Oct  002/003
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  009/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  010/012-007/008-005/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Oct kuni 27 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%30%05%
Väike torm05%05%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%40%20%
Väike torm15%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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