Vaata pühapäev, 25 september 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Sep 25 2235 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF number 268 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Sep 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Regions 1302 (N12E36) and
1303 (S28W79) each produced three M-class flares. The largest was
an M7/2N at 25/0450Z. A partial halo CME was observed at 24/1936Z
in LASCO C2 imagery which was likely associated with the M3 flare
from Region 1302 that occurred at 24/1921Z. The event had an
associated Type II (1369 km/s) and an approximate plane of sky speed
of 800 km/s using LASCO C3 imagery. The majority of the ejecta was
directed off the North East limb. Two more CMEs were observed at
25/0236Z and 25/0312Z off the Southwest limb in LASCO C2 imagery,
however, they are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at high levels with a chance for isolated X-class flares from Region
1302.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. At approximately 25/1106Z,
the IMF Bt increased from 5 nT to 10 nT while the field
density increased to around 7 p/cc at the ACE spacecraft. A sudden
impulse (14 nT) was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 25/1151Z.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 23/2255Z, reached
a peak of 27.3 PFUs at 25/2030Z, and continues to remain above the
10 PFU threshold.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions with major
storm periods possible at high latitudes on day 1 (26 September) due
to activity from the CME associated with the M7 flare that occurred
at 24/1320Z. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on days 2-3
(27-28 September) due to continued activity from the CME as well as
a possible glancing blow from a weak CME on day 3. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to remain above threshold
for the next three days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Sepkuni 28 Sep
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Prooton | 99% | 99% | 80% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Sep 169 Prognoositud 26 Sep-28 Sep 170/170/170 90 päeva keskmine 25 Sep 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Sep 003/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 025/030-012/012-008/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Sep kuni 28 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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