Vaata pühapäev, 11 september 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Sep 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 254 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Sep 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1283 (N14W87) produced
a long duration C6/Sf flare at 11/0851Z. Region 1283 currently is
rotating around the west limb as a Dso spot group with a Beta-Gamma
magnetic classification. Region 1289 (N22E12), a Dko-Beta spot
group with 430 millionths in area, exhibited decay in its smaller
trailing spots. New Region 1292 (N08E66) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with further M-class flares likely on 12 September as
Region 1283 continues to rotate around the west limb. On 12 - 14
September, solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a
slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Minor
storm levels were observed during the period 10/2100 - 2400Z.
Activity was likely due to continued CME effects followed by a
coronal hole high speed stream. At approximately 10/1401Z, a slight
increase in density, wind speed, and temperature was seen in the ACE
solar wind monitor. Solar wind speed continued to increase to
approximately 660 km/s while density dropped to around 1 p/cc during
the period. This was most likely the start of the transition into
the coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on days 1 and 2 (12-13 September) due to continued coronal hole
influence and a possible glancing blow from the 10 September CME.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 3 (14
September).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Sepkuni 14 Sep
| Klass M | 55% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Sep 121 Prognoositud 12 Sep-14 Sep 120/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 11 Sep 100
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Sep 020/033 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Sep 010/018 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 010/012-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Sep kuni 14 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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