Vaata neljapäev, 8 september 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Sep 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 251 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Sep 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1283 (N16W42) produced
two major flares. The first was an X1/3b at 07/2238Z associated with
weak Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 1300 sfu Tenflare, and a
non-Earth-directed CME. The second was an M6/1n at 08/1546Z
associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1283 maintained a
weak delta magnetic within the northern portion of its leader spots
and showed trailer spot development during the period. Region 1289
(N21E51) also showed trailer spot development during the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 September) with a chance for
another X-class flare from Region 1283.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels until late on day 1 (09 September).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels late on 09
September with a chance for active levels due to a CME arrival. A
further increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for
minor storm levels is expected on day 2 (10 September) as the CME
passage continues. A decrease to unsettled levels is expected on day
3 (11 September). There will be a chance for a greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Sepkuni 11 Sep
| Klass M | 75% | 70% | 65% |
| Klass X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Prooton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Sep 110 Prognoositud 09 Sep-11 Sep 105/105/100 90 päeva keskmine 08 Sep 099
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Sep 004/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 010/012-020/022-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Sep kuni 11 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
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