Vaata neljapäev, 25 august 2011 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 237 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Aug 2011

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1271 (N17W56) decayed in area and spot count, but developed a Delta magnetic configuration in the large leader spot. The region produced numerous low-level B-class events. Three new regions were numbered during the period. In the western hemisphere, new Region 1278 (N16W40) emerged as a simple 4-spot bi-polar group. On the eastern limb, new Region 1277 (N17E62) and new Region 1279 (N14E75) both rotated onto the disk as large, uni-polar H-type groups. Region 1277 produced a B9 x-ray event at 25/0702Z while Region 1279 produced another B9 x-ray event at 25/1652Z. The SOHO LASCO satellite observed a slow-moving CME off the east limb, first observed in C2 imagery at 25/0856Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 420 km/s. This CME does not appear to have an Earthward directed component.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days (26 - 28 August).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a steady decline in solar wind velocity during the period from about 500 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT while the phi angle remained negative (toward) throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for days one and two (26 - 27 August). By day three (28 August), activity levels are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Augkuni 28 Aug
Klass M10%10%10%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       25 Aug 104
  Prognoositud   26 Aug-28 Aug  110/115/115
  90 päeva keskmine        25 Aug 097
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/006
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  005/005
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Aug kuni 28 Aug
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%20%
Väike torm01%01%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%30%
Väike torm01%01%15%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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