Vaata esmaspäev, 8 august 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Aug 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 220 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Aug 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1263 (N18W68)
produced the largest x-ray flare of the period, a M3/1b at 1810Z.
This event was accompanied by a Type II radio emission (3284 km/s)
and a Tenflare (300 sfu). STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated a CME
first visible at 1824Z. Extrapolation from later images suggested a
speed of approximately 2010 km/s. Preliminary LASCO C3 image
analysis suggested a speed of 1152 km/s. Region 1263 ended the
period as a Ekc type spot group with beta-gamma-delta magnetic
characteristics. The remaining regions on the disk were small,
simple and relatively quiet.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
low to moderate for the next three days (09-11 Aug) with Region 1263
being the most likely source of activity. A slight chance for an
isolated X flare and/or proton event remains through the forecast
period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as the effects from a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream began to taper off. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was approximately 600 km/s while
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained near
zero. There was an enhancement of the greater than 10-MeV protons
in response to the M3 flare mentioned above. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days in the
wake of the coronal hole high speed stream. Further analysis of the
CME observed in STEREO and SOHO imagery is underway to determine its
geoeffective potential.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Augkuni 11 Aug
| Klass M | 55% | 55% | 40% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Aug 102 Prognoositud 09 Aug-11 Aug 095/085/085 90 päeva keskmine 08 Aug 096
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Aug 010/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Aug kuni 11 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 11% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 06% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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