Vaata laupäev, 6 august 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Aug 06 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 218 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Aug 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was a C4/Sf flare from Region 1267 (S17E13). This region
developed a small delta in the central spot. Region 1263, an Ekc
spot class with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, lost some
penumbral area in its central spots, however it developed new spots
as flux began to emerge from its trailer area. SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery observed two slow moving CMEs at 1036Z and 1736Z with the
majority of the ejecta directed off the West limb. SDO and SXI
imagery showed filament eruptions associated with the events. These
CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the continued chance for an M-class flare from Region 1263.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. Minor to
severe storm periods were seen from 05/2100Z to 06/0600Z. The
period started off with solar wind speeds reaching approximately 620
km/s with a total field strength around 28 nT. The Bz component of
the magnetic field was south around -20 nT for 2 hours before
crossing into a positive region at approximately 05/2211Z. Solar
wind speed, density, and total magnetic field strength slowly
decreased throughout the period as the effects of the CME passage
began to diminish. The period ended with a wind speed around 440
km/s and Bt around 5 nT. The greater than 10 MeV protons above 10
PFU event that began at 04/0635Z, reached a peak flux of 96 PFU at
05/2150Z, and ended at 06/0515Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 07 August as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
Levels are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on 08 August.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 09 August.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Augkuni 09 Aug
| Klass M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Aug 110 Prognoositud 07 Aug-09 Aug 105/100/095 90 päeva keskmine 06 Aug 096
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Aug 032/049 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Aug 018/033 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Aug kuni 09 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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