Vaata esmaspäev, 11 juuli 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Jul 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 192 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Jul 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1249 (S18W04) produced a
C2/1f at 11/1103Z with a Type II radio signature (est. shock
velocity 977 km/s). A CME associated with this event became visible
in STEREO COR-2 imagery at 11/1209Z and had an estimated speed of
750 km/s. Region 1251 (N15E68) was numbered overnight and is
currently an Hsx-alpha type region. All other regions on the disk
appear to be relatively stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(12-14 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
The increase in activity is due to a combination of the coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) and the CME observed on 09 July. A Sudden
Impulse (SI) was observed at Earth at 11/0852Z with a 24 nT
deviation measured at the Boulder magnetometer indicating the
arrival of the CME. ACE spacecraft measurements indicated solar wind
velocities of 700 km/s towards the end of the period, most likely
due to the arrival of a second CH HSS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
for the next three days (12-14 July) due to the onset of a recurrent
CH HSS and the anticipated arrival (late on day two) of the CME
observed early this morning.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Julkuni 14 Jul
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Jul 090 Prognoositud 12 Jul-14 Jul 092/094/094 90 päeva keskmine 11 Jul 099
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 007/007-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Jul kuni 14 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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