Vaata laupäev, 9 juuli 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Jul 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 190 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Jul 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1247 (S18W02) produced the largest event of the
period, a B4 x-ray event at 09/0028Z. A nearby filament eruption was
associated with this event with a subsequent partial-halo asymmetric
CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0125Z. This CME does
have an earth directed component. Region 1249 (S16E25) was numbered
early in the period but like many of the numbered regions on the
disk, has remained stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (10-12 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels of the past
24 hours. The elevated activity was due to a solar sector boundary
(SSB) crossing early in the period. Measurements by the ACE
spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing, from 350 km/s to
around 450 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(10-11 July) as a CH HSS continues to be geoeffective. On day three
(12 July), coupled with the arrival of another CH HSS, the CME,
observed earlier today, is expected to impact Earth. Since this CME
was only a partial-halo and is not traveling at great speed, only
unsettled to active levels are expected.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Julkuni 12 Jul
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Jul 086 Prognoositud 10 Jul-12 Jul 086/086/088 90 päeva keskmine 09 Jul 099
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Jul 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 007/007-007/007-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Jul kuni 12 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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