Vaata kolmapäev, 6 juuli 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Jul 06 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 187 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 Jul 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1243
(N15W46) produced a B2 flare at 05/2156Z. An approximately 23 degree
long filament centered near N25W60 was first observed lifting toward
the NW at approximately 06/1052Z. An associated CME was observed at
06/1048Z directed toward the NW on SOHO LASCO imagery. SOHO LASCO C2
showed an estimated plane of sky speed of about 573 km/s. The CME
did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 1243 continued to show
an increase in spots and area and was classified as a Dai group with
a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (07-09 July).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period between 06/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels, late on day one (07 July) and day two (08 July). The
increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream and a possible CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed
on LASCO C3 at 03/0142. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on
day three (09 July).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Julkuni 09 Jul
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 Jul 085 Prognoositud 07 Jul-09 Jul 084/082/084 90 päeva keskmine 06 Jul 100
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 Jul 008/014 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 008/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 Jul kuni 09 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 35% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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