Vaata neljapäev, 2 juuni 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Jun 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 153 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Jun 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22E01) produced
several C-class events during the period. This region is a Dsi
group with a beta magnetic classification. A further analysis of
LASCO imagery correlated the C4/1f at 01/1708Z from Region 1226 to a
Earth directed partial-halo CME. This event was observed by STEREO
COR2 imagery at 01/2009Z. Region 1227 (S19E13) is also a D-type
group with a beta magnetic classification. It produced a C3/2n at
02/0746Z with an associated Type IV radio sweep, and a Earth
directed partial-halo CME. STEREO COR2 and LASCO C3 imagery
observed the event with a plane-of-sky speed of 831 km/s. New
Region 1232 (N10E61) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (03 June). Active
conditions with isolated minor storm levels are expected for day two
(04 June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective,
and additional effects from recent CME activity. Day three (05
June) is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active conditions.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Junkuni 05 Jun
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Jun 112 Prognoositud 03 Jun-05 Jun 112/110/110 90 päeva keskmine 02 Jun 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Jun 009/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Jun 008/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 008/012-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Jun kuni 05 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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