Vaata kolmapäev, 20 aprill 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Apr 20 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 110 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Apr 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Regions 1195 (S17E55) and 1193 (N16W20) remain areas of
interest producing several B/C class events. The largest event was a
C4/Sf at 20/1939Z from Region 1195. Behind Region 1195, just
rotating onto the east limb, New Region 1196 (S27E69) is already
producing C-class events. Note: The Penticton 10.7 cm radio flux
appears to be flare enhanced.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (21-23 April).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with isolated
minor storm periods observed at high latitudes. The increase in
activity was due to the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). Observations at the ACE spacecraft, over the past 24
hours, have shown the solar wind speed increase from 350-550 km/s
and back down 500 km/s.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 2 days
(21-22 April) as the effects of the CH HSS subside. Late on 21
April, a slow moving CME is expected to become geoeffective with
quiet to unsettled conditions lasting for 24 hours. On day three (23
April), quiet conditions are expected to prevail.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Aprkuni 23 Apr
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 20 Apr 117 Prognoositud 21 Apr-23 Apr 115/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 20 Apr 104
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 20 Apr 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Apr kuni 23 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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