Vaata kolmapäev, 30 märts 2011 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Mar 30 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 089 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 Mar 2011

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated B- and C-class flares were observed from Region 1176 (S17W37) and Region 1183 (N15E27). Region 1176 showed magnetic simplification and was classified as an Fso group with a beta magnetic structure. Region 1183 showed a minor increase in spot count and area and was classified as an Eai group with a beta magnetic structure. Two filaments disappeared during the period. The first was 9 degrees in extent, centered near N48E16, and disappeared early in the period. The second was 7 degrees in extent, centered near S27E21, and disappeared around mid-period. There was no significant CME activity associated with either disappearance. A back-sided partial-halo CME was observed early in the period, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 29/2024Z, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 1075 km/sec. The source of the CME was an active region about a day beyond the northeast limb. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (31 March - 02 April) with a chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period was observed during 30/0000 - 0300Z, followed by quiet levels for the rest of the period. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) was observed at 30/0018Z (12 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity was associated with a period of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection -8 nT at 29/2306Z) combined with increased IMF Bt (peak 15 nT at 29/2359Z).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (31 March - 01 April) with a chance for brief active levels due to recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (02 April) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 31 Markuni 02 Apr
Klass M40%40%40%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       30 Mar 118
  Prognoositud   31 Mar-02 Apr  125/130/135
  90 päeva keskmine        30 Mar 098
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 Mar  002/004
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  007/008
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 31 Mar kuni 02 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%15%10%
Väike torm05%05%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%20%15%
Väike torm10%05%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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