Vaata kolmapäev, 23 märts 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Mar 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 082 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Mar 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1176 (S15E58) produced an isolated impulsive M1 flare at 23/0217Z
associated with weak radio emission. It also produced occasional B-
and C-class flares. Region 1176 rotated more fully into view and was
classified as an Eko-type group with a moderately complex beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 1175 (N11W76) was quiet and stable as
it approached the west limb. New Region 1177 (N21E51) was numbered
as a magnetically simple, single-spot Axx-type.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels during the period (24 - 26 March) with a chance
for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1176.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with a
brief interval of active levels detected at Boulder at around
23/0700Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity was
the result of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind
velocities gradually increased from 358 to 547 km/sec during the
period. IMF Bt increased during the period with a maximum of 11 nT
observed at 23/0714Z. IMF Bz was variable during the period and
ranged from -6 to +8 nT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (24 -
25 Mar) with a chance for brief active levels as coronal hole
effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on
day 3 (26 March) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Markuni 26 Mar
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Mar 105 Prognoositud 24 Mar-26 Mar 105/105/110 90 päeva keskmine 23 Mar 095
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Mar 005/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Mar kuni 26 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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