Vaata teisipäev, 15 veebruar 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Feb 15 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 046 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 15 Feb 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S21W27)
produced an X2 x-ray event at 15/0156Z associated with a Tenflare
and a Type II radio sweep. A halo CME was associated with this event
and had an estimated plane-of-sky speed around 710 km/s. Region 1158
has increased in area to 600 millionths and has a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. This region also produced multiple C-class
events the largest being a C4 at 15/0432Z. New Region 1161 (N11E38)
has grown and is currently a magnetically simple D-type sunspot
group, but did not produce any flares.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for isolated high activity for the next three
days (16-18 February). Region 1158 is the most likely source for
activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 14-2100Z kuni 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with isolated
unsettled conditions to begin the period. Solar wind data from the
ACE satellite indicated a drop in total field to around 4nT as the
effects from yesterdays transient subsided. GOES-13 indicated an
enhancement of the greater than 10MeV protons starting at 15/0710Z
and peaking around 2.6 PFU at geosynchronous orbit. Solar wind
velocities did increase slightly to around 500 km/s most likely due
to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (16 February). Day two
(17 February) is expected to be quiet to active with a chance for
minor storming late in the period. Day three (18 February) is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storming. The increase in activity is forecast due to expected
arrival of the CME from the X2 event described in part IA.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 16 Febkuni 18 Feb
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 15 Feb 113 Prognoositud 16 Feb-18 Feb 103/100/100 90 päeva keskmine 15 Feb 084
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 008/010-018/018-025/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 16 Feb kuni 18 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 45% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 00% | 05% | 05% |
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