Vaata esmaspäev, 14 veebruar 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Feb 14 2205 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 045 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 Feb 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate Region 1158 (S21W14)
produce an M2/1N flare at 14/1745Z associated with a 150 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1479 km/s).
Region 1158 also produced seven C-class events the largest being a
C9 at 14/1253. This region continued to grow throughout the period
and is currently magnetically classified as a Beta-gamma type
spotgroup with an area of 450 millionths.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for an M5 or greater x-ray event for days
one thru three (15-17 February).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A sudden impulse was
observed at 14/1600Z (12nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicated a
shock arrival at 14/1456Z. Solar wind velocities increased to
approximately 410 km/s and total field increased to around 20 nT
following the shock. The source of todays activity is likely an
east limb event that occurred at 11/2146Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods on day one (15 February). There is a slight chance for
isolated minor storm periods on days two and three (16-17 February).
The increase is forecast due to the expected return of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream and the arrival of a CME from
yesterdays M6 event.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 Febkuni 17 Feb
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 Feb 113 Prognoositud 15 Feb-17 Feb 100/100/100 90 päeva keskmine 14 Feb 084
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 13 Feb 001/002 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 Feb kuni 17 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
<< Mine igapäevase ülevaate lehele
Viimane uudis
esmaspäev, 22 aprill 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
laupäev, 23 märts 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
kolmapäev, 20 märts 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Viimane foorumi postitus
AR3663 282024/05/03 X1.69 CME 8Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1013Unproven theories 380Filaments and prominences 69
Veel teemasidToeta SpaceWeatherLive.com-i!
Paljud inimesed külastavad SpaceWeatherLive lehte selleks, et jälgida, mis toimub Päikesel või, kas on oodata virmalisi. Suurema liiklusega on serveri koormus ning maksumus kõrgem. Kui sulle meeldib see, mida me sinu heaks teeme, siis saad sa sellele ka ise natukene kaasa aidata, annetades selle lehe käigus hoidmise ja arendamise heaks. Ette tänades SpeaceWeatherLive meeskond!
Fakte kosmose ilmast
| Viimane X-loide | 03/05/2024 | X1.6 |
| Viimane M-loide | 03/05/2024 | M4.4 |
| Viimane geomagnetiline torm | 02/05/2024 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Plekivabasid päevi | |
|---|---|
| Viimane päikese plekivaba päev | 08/06/2022 |
| Kuu keskmine päikeseplekkide arv | |
|---|---|
| aprill 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Viimased 30 päeva | 149.4 +51.8 |