Vaata pühapäev, 9 jaanuar 2011 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2011 Jan 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 009 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Jan 2011IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1140
(N32W49) produced a B1 flare at 09/1351Z. Region 1140 showed signs
of decay with the loss of spots in the positive-polarity field just
north of the main spot and was classified as an Hsx group. The
remaining spot groups were A- and B-types with simple magnetic
configurations, including newly numbered Regions 1144 (S16W36) and
1145 (N15E35).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels through the period (10 - 12 January).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained within a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities were variable
in the 554 to 648 km/s range. IMF Bt showed a gradual increase with
a peak value of 6 nT observed late in the period. IMF Bz was
variable and ranged from +5 to -4 nT during the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day 1 (10
January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream persists. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 - 3
(11 - 12 January) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Jankuni 12 Jan
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Jan 083 Prognoositud 10 Jan-12 Jan 082/082/080 90 päeva keskmine 09 Jan 084
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Jan 004/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Jan kuni 12 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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