Vaata teisipäev, 3 august 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 Aug 03 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 215 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Aug 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N15W04)
produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1092 remained a stable
Cho-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions
were assigned.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels until late in
the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels
following a sudden geomagnetic impulse (SI) at 03/1741Z (21 nT, as
measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was preceded by
the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the ACE spacecraft at
03/1656Z. Both effects were due to the arrival of a CME associated
with the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (04
August) as the current CME passage continues. Activity is forecast
to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament
disappearance). Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on day 3 (06 August) as CME effects subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Augkuni 06 Aug
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Aug 081 Prognoositud 04 Aug-06 Aug 082/084/084 90 päeva keskmine 03 Aug 075
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Aug 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 020/025-030/035-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Aug kuni 06 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 40% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 15% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 45% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 35% | 01% |
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