Vaata pühapäev, 1 august 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 Aug 01 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 213 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 01 Aug 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1092
(N13E21) produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 01/0826Z. The flare
was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, an 890 sfu Tenflare, and
an Earth-directed full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). A
disappearing filament (DSF) occurred during 01/0750 - 0811Z,
centered near N37W32 and time coincident with the C3 flare. The DSF
was associated with an Earth-directed partial-halo CME. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1092.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 31-2100Z kuni 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 1 (02 August). An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected late on day 1 due
to the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 01 August. Activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels on day 2 (03 August) as CME effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance for active levels on day 3 (04 August) as CME effects
subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 02 Augkuni 04 Aug
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 01 Aug 080 Prognoositud 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/080/082 90 päeva keskmine 01 Aug 075
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 007/008-018/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 02 Aug kuni 04 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 45% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
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