Vaata reede, 4 juuni 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 Jun 04 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 155 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Jun 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W49) has decayed in white light areal
coverage but remains a beta magnetic classification. No flares were
observed. However, a full-halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery
at 04/1202Z. The CME appears to be a backsided event and is not
expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next
three days (05-07 June).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with an
isolated minor storm period from 0000Z-0300Z for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft indicate the continuation of
a high speed solar wind stream with wind speeds around 550 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels with a chance for an isolated
active period for the first day (05 June) due to persistence and the
forecasted arrival of the CME observed on 31 May. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on the second day (06 June). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active periods
on the third day (07 June) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream
moving into geoeffective position.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Junkuni 07 Jun
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Jun 072 Prognoositud 05 Jun-07 Jun 072/072/072 90 päeva keskmine 04 Jun 077
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Jun 013/013 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Jun 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 010/010-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Jun kuni 07 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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