Vaata neljapäev, 6 mai 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 May 06 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 126 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 May 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. A single
low-level B-class flare occurred during the period. Region 1069
(N42W51) showed a decrease in area, but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. An eruptive prominence and associated CME
(estimated velocity 507 km/sec) occurred near the southwest limb
very early in the period. The CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (07 - 08 May) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to
very low levels on day 3 (09 May) as Region 1069 crosses the west
limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. However,
a brief period of active levels was detected at Boulder around
06/0800Z. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained
within a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 491 - 584 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the summary period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 3 (07 -
09 May). There is also a chance for active levels during days 2 - 3
(08 - 09 May) in response to recent CME activity.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 Maykuni 09 May
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 06 May 079 Prognoositud 07 May-09 May 078/076/075 90 päeva keskmine 06 May 082
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 05 May 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 06 May 007/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/009-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 May kuni 09 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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