Vaata teisipäev, 4 mai 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 May 04 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 124 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 May 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of
one C-class flare, a C3/Sf at 1629Z, as well as a few low-level
B-class flares. The C-flare was produced by newly numbered Region
1069 (N42W27) which emerged during the past 24 hours and became the
primary activity center on the disk. A weak wave/dimming event near
S29W00 was observed in SOHO EIT images at about 0700Z and was
associated with a faint CME.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional isolated C-class flares are likely if the current growth
trend in 1069 continues.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled with some isolated
active periods as well as some isolated storm level activity at high
latitudes. Solar wind data from ACE indicate the continuation of a
high speed solar wind stream, although the speeds were generally
decreasing with values around 600 km/s at the end of the analysis
interval. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period
for the first day (05 May) due to persistence. Activity levels are
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (06 May) and
mostly quiet for the third day (07 May).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Maykuni 07 May
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 May 082 Prognoositud 05 May-07 May 084/086/086 90 päeva keskmine 04 May 082
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 May 019/027 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 May 010/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 May kuni 07 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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