Vaata neljapäev, 11 märts 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 Mar 11 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 070 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Mar 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class events. The largest of these was a B4/Sf
at 2039Z from Region 1054 (N15E43). This region showed steady growth
throughout the day and is classified as a D type group. The total
sunspot area increased to about 160 millionths near the end of the
period. New Region 1055 (S23W15) also continued to emerge slowly and
is currently a C-type group with about 30 millionths in area.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1054 or 1055.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and was
mostly unsettled to active at high latitudes. However, there were
some isolated storm intervals at high latitudes between 0000-1200Z.
Solar wind observations from ACE showed elevated velocities around
460-500 km/s with low density (1-3 p/cc). The signatures are
consistent with a weak high speed stream, presumably from the
southward extension of the northern polar coronal hole.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled is possible on the third day (14
March) due to effects from a recurrent solar sector boundary.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Markuni 14 Mar
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Mar 084 Prognoositud 12 Mar-14 Mar 085/085/085 90 päeva keskmine 11 Mar 082
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Mar kuni 14 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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