Vaata esmaspäev, 8 veebruar 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 Feb 08 2211 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF number 039 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Feb 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17)
produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. STEREO and
SOHO/LASCO imagery observed CME activity with each of the three
events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated
Tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both
white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic
beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional Tenflares
observed during the period (both associated with Region 1045
events), a C7/Sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare, and a C8/1f at
08/0523Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare. A new region was numbered today
as Region 1047 (S15E70).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a
X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at
mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for the next three days (09-11 February). These
conditions are forecast due to the recent CME activity.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Febkuni 11 Feb
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Feb 094 Prognoositud 09 Feb-11 Feb 096/096/094 90 päeva keskmine 08 Feb 078
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/009-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Feb kuni 11 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 02% | 01% | 05% |
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