Vaata teisipäev, 22 detsember 2009 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2009 Dec 22 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 356 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Dec 2009IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1036 (S27W58) produced a
C7/Sf flare at 22/0456Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated velocity 531 km/sec) and discrete frequency radio bursts,
the largest of which was 4900 sfu at 245 MHz. There was also a
faint, slow-moving partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME)
associated with the flare (estimated velocity 300 km/sec). Region
1036 gradually decayed from a D-type to a B-type spot group during
the period. Additional isolated low-level C-class flares and
occasional B-class flares also occurred during the period. Region
1035 (N31W98) crossed the west limb early in the period. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (23 - 24 December) with a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare. Activity is expected to drop to very low
levels on day 3 (25 December) as Region 1036 departs the west limb.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (23 - 25
December). The CME mentioned above is not expected to significantly
disturb the field.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Deckuni 25 Dec
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Dec 082 Prognoositud 23 Dec-25 Dec 078/076/074 90 päeva keskmine 22 Dec 074
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Dec 001/001 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Dec 001/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Dec kuni 25 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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