Vaata kolmapäev, 24 juuni 2009 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2009 Jun 24 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 175 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Jun 2009IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1023 (S23E01) continues to be the only
spotted region on the disk and was stable and quiet.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. In particular, active periods were observed between
0300-0900Z and 1800-2100Z. Solar wind signatures showed a change to
slightly disturbed conditions beginning around 0300Z and lasting
through the period: the magnetic field intensity increased, the Bz
component of the solar wind showed occasional moderate fluctuations
with peak negative values around -10 nT early in the day, and around
-20 nT later in the day. In addition the spiral angle phi indicated
two possible sector boundary changes. During the last 12 hours of
the period solar wind velocity was gradually increasing. The
signatures late in the day were consistent with the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for active periods
for the first day (25 June) as the current disturbance continues.
Activity levels are expected to decline to generally quiet levels
for the second and third days (26-27 June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Junkuni 27 Jun
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Jun 067 Prognoositud 25 Jun-27 Jun 068/068/068 90 päeva keskmine 24 Jun 070
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Jun 005/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Jun 012/011 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Jun kuni 27 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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