Vaata neljapäev, 4 september 2008 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2008 Sep 04 2201 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 248 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Sep 2008IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet to unsettled, but activity
increased to minor to major storm levels from 0000-0600Z. Active
levels prevailed from 0600-1500Z, after which conditions decreased
to unsettled levels. The activity was driven by a prolonged period
of southward Bz (about -10 nT) occurring together with elevated
solar wind speeds. Solar wind velocity continued to rise during the
past 24 hours with day-end values near 600 km/s. The solar wind
signatures are generally consistent with a high speed stream from a
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first day (05 September)
as the high speed wind stream is expected to continue. Conditions
should gradually decline to predominantly unsettled for the second
day (06 September) and quiet to unsettled for the third day (07
September).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Sepkuni 07 Sep
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 Sep 066 Prognoositud 05 Sep-07 Sep 066/066/066 90 päeva keskmine 04 Sep 066
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Sep 007/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 04 Sep 020/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 015/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Sep kuni 07 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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