Vaata neljapäev, 26 juuni 2008 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2008 Jun 26 2203 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 178 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 Jun 2008IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Conditions were initially unsettled but increased to
predominantly active levels from 0000-1500Z. A particularly notable
substorm was observed between 0900-1200Z, which elevated some high
latitude sites to storm level activity. Activity levels have
declined to quiet to unsettled levels since 1500Z. Solar wind
signatures showed an increase in velocity from initial values of
about 500 km/s to about 650 km/s by 0800Z. Solar wind velocity
continued to be elevated in the 600-650 km/s range through the
remainder of the day. The solar wind observations were all
consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods for the first day (27 June) while the solar wind
velocity remains elevated. Conditions are expected to decline to
quiet to unsettled levels for the second day (28 June) and
predominantly quiet for the third day (29 June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Junkuni 29 Jun
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 Jun 065 Prognoositud 27 Jun-29 Jun 065/065/065 90 päeva keskmine 26 Jun 069
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 Jun 010/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 26 Jun 012/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 Jun kuni 29 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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