Vaata teisipäev, 11 detsember 2007 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2007 Dec 11 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 345 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Dec 2007IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low level B-class flares. Region 978 (S07E01) is the only
sunspot region on the disk and is a 240 millionths Eai beta-gamma
group. The group has been relatively stable during the past 24
hours. There appears to be a new region rotating around east limb
near N28.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event
sometime during the next three days (12-14 December).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled although there was an
active period from 10/2100Z-11/0000Z. Solar wind observations from
ACE show the onset of a co-rotating interaction region late
yesterday, followed by the onset of a high speed stream around
11/0000Z. Peak solar wind speeds were around 650 km/s. Nonetheless
the solar wind magnetic field has been relatively weak since
11/0130Z. The solar wind speed is currently declining slowly with
values around 550 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for an isolated
active period for 12 December. Conditions should be predominantly
quiet for 13-14 December.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Deckuni 14 Dec
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Dec 093 Prognoositud 12 Dec-14 Dec 095/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 11 Dec 070
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Dec 012/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Dec kuni 14 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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