Vaata reede, 8 detsember 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Dec 08 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 342 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Dec 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 930 (S05E32)
has produced only B-class activity during the past 24 hours. Region
930 is no longer as magnetically complex and now has a Beta-Gamma
configuration.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Transient flow from the CME associated with the X9 event on 05
December was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately
08/0400Z. The IMF Bz component ranged between approximately +/- 10
nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z
continues, but is on the decline. The maximum observed flux so far
is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that
began at 07/0115Z continues, but is also on the decline. The
maximum observed flux so far is 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods on 09 December due to CME activity associated
with the M6 and X6 flares of 06 December. Expect unsettled to
active conditions on 10 - 11 December. The greater than 10 Mev
proton event is expected to end late on 09 December. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next 12
hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Deckuni 11 Dec
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 80% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Dec 096 Prognoositud 09 Dec-11 Dec 095/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 08 Dec 081
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Dec 014/025 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Dec 025/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 040/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Dec kuni 11 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
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