Vaata laupäev, 23 september 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Sep 23 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 266 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Sep 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was low with one C-class flare produced
by Region 910 (S10W18). Seeing conditions at all optical sites have
ranged from poor to non-existent so there is some disagreement in
the magnetic classification of this region, however, a
classification of Beta seems most likely. The San Vito optical
site reported a Type II radio sweep from 23/1106Z - 23/1114Z with an
estimated shock speed of 711 km/s. No current imagery is available
to aid in determining the possibility that a CME may be associated
with this radio event or in identifying the location of this event.
Within an hour of the radio sweep GOES 11 experienced an enhancement
of >1 MeV proton flux which peaked at 1800Z and is now decreasing.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There remains a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region
910.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one unsettled period. Activity
is due to both the occurrence of a solar sector boundary crossing
and the beginning of a coronal hole high speed stream now rotating
into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
was at high levels again today, however, at approximately 1930Z flux
decreased to below the threshold level for the first time in several
days.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with some isolated
minor storm periods. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Sepkuni 26 Sep
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Sep 070 Prognoositud 24 Sep-26 Sep 075/075/075 90 päeva keskmine 23 Sep 076
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Sep 001/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 010/020-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Sep kuni 26 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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