Vaata laupäev, 22 aprill 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Apr 22 2203 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 112 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Apr 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare which reached
maximum at 1639UTC was the largest event of the day. B-class flares
were more numerous and all activity was seen to be centered on
active regions just rotating onto the disk in the southern
hemisphere. The sole spot group, Region 874 (S02W39), was quiet as
it continued to decay.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Expect isolated C-class flares during the next three
days.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was moderately disturbed early in the period,
as conditions ranged from active to brief major storming at high
latitudes. This activity was due to strong Alfven waves in the solar
wind that caused periods of southward IMF to reach -15 nT at
times. The solar wind returned to more normal conditions during the
last 12 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the interval. Brief active
conditions may occur in the near term as the solar wind speed,
though decreasing, is still above 500 km/s.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Aprkuni 25 Apr
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Apr 082 Prognoositud 23 Apr-25 Apr 085/085/085 90 päeva keskmine 22 Apr 078
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Apr 015/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Apr kuni 25 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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