Vaata kolmapäev, 31 august 2005 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2005 Aug 31 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 243 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 31 Aug 2005IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 30-2100Z kuni 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 803 (N11W13)
produced a long duration C2 x-ray event that occurred at 31/1151Z.
This event was followed by a full halo CME that was first observed
at 31/1100Z by LASCO imagery. Region 803 continues to show decay
and is down to 20 millionths of sunspot area. Region 806 (S17E23)
was limited to B-class flare activity and has shown slight decay in
sunspot coverage. The magnetic gamma structure remains intact
although it has weakened since yesterday. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 30-2100Z kuni 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions ensued following a sustained southward Bz
(ranging between -10 and -20 nT) which began just after 31/1000Z.
This activity is believed to be in response to a corotating
interaction region. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. A coronal hole may
keep conditions elevated throughout the period. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible on 2 September due to the effects
of the full halo CME from the long duration C2 x-ray event that
occurred today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 Sepkuni 03 Sep
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 31 Aug 084 Prognoositud 01 Sep-03 Sep 080/080/080 90 päeva keskmine 31 Aug 094
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 30 Aug 003/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 31 Aug 018/032 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 Sep kuni 03 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 45% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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